Kenya Bond Market Update: 19 March 2024

Published on
March 19, 2024
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Get Ready, Get Ready
 

Ready your bids for the re-opened FXD1/2023/5Yr and new 10Yr bond, FXD1/2024/10Yr, as the sale period closes tomorrow morning, at 10AM EAT. My updated expectations for these bonds are captured below, with the biggest change coming in my expectations for the new 10Yr bond:
  • FXD1/2023/5Yr Average: 18.40% - 18.60%, with the cut-off coming in 20 – 30bps above the average (coupon set at 16.844%)
  • FXD1/2024/10Yr Average: 17.90% - 18.30%, with the cut-off coming in 20 – 30bps above the average (coupon set at 16.000%)
  • Subscription: assuming the target is KES 40Bn, an undersubscription would be my expectation.
  • Please continue to poke some holes in my above expectations so that we can all be aligned by Wednesday morning
For your other trading activities for the day, below is a snapshot of what is at play within the secondary market for your consideration. Happy hunting and bidding!
Below are the two-way quotes for the benchmark tenors:
 
Indicative Two-Way Quotes - Benchmark Tenors
Benchmark Tenor Bid (%) Offer (%) Mov (t-t0)%
1Yr 17.20 16.80 0.00
2Yr 18.40 18.00 0.00
5yr 18.60 18.20 0.00
10yr 17.00 16.50 0.00
15yr 16.50 16.00 0.00
20yr 16.50 16.00 0.00
25yr 16.50 16.00 0.00

Below are details of the two-way quotes for the infrastructure bonds and the key rates:
 
Indicative Two-Way Quotes - IFB Series
IFB series Maturity Bid (%) Offer (%) Mov (t-t0)%
IFB1/2017/7 (IFB13) Nov-24 15.75 15.50 0.00
IFB1/2016/9 (IFB10) May-25 15.85 15.75 0.00
IFB1/2015/12 (IFB8) Mar-27 14.50 14.00 0.00
IFB1/2017/12 (IFB12) Feb-29 16.00 15.00 0.00
IFB1/2016/15 (IFB11) Oct-31 16.00 15.50 0.00
IFB1/2018/15 (IFB14) Jan-33 15.50 15.00 0.00
IFB1/2018/20 (IFB15) Oct-38 16.50 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2019/25 (IFB16) Feb-44 16.50 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2019/16 (IFB17) Oct-35 15.50 15.20 0.00
IFB1/2020/9 (IFB18) Apr-29 14.75 14.50 0.00
IFB1/2020/6 (IFB19) May-26 13.50 12.75 0.00
IFB1/2020/11 (IFB20) Aug-31 17.50 16.75 0.00
IFB1/2021/16 (IFB21) Jan-37 17.00 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2021/18 (IFB22) Mar-39 17.00 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2021/21 (IFB23) Aug-42 17.00 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2022/19 (IFB24) Jan-41 17.00 16.50 0.00
IFB1/2022/18 (IFB25) May-40 17.00 16.50 0.00
IFB1/2022/14 (IFB26) Oct-36 17.00 16.50 0.00
IFB1/2022/6 (IFB27) Nov-28 17.00 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2023/17 (IFB28) Feb-40 16.50 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2023/7 (IFB29) Jun-30 16.50 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2023/6.5 (IFB30) May-30 17.00 16.60 -0.15
IFB1/2024/8.5 (IFB31) Aug-32 17.00 16.70 -0.25
 
 
Key Interest Rates   Mov (bps)
O/N Interbank 13.3657% 4.34
91 Day T-bill 16.6976% 3.79
182 Day T-bill 16.8900% 4.23
364 Day T-bill 16.9889% 0.44
Central Bank Rate (CBR) 13.00% 50.00
Inflation 6.60% -30.00
Attached are the bond positions available today and the March bond auction prospectus.
Bond Positions
March Bond Auction Prospectus
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