One More Day
This is dedicated to all the lovers out there. Which flowers or chocolates or socks will they like? Where will the CBK cut-off rates? It has been tricky formulating a views this week, especially for the incoming infrastructure bond, the IFB1/2024/8.5Yr. There has been renewed interest for Government securities driven by the re-entry of offshore investors. My expectations for the auction are as follows:
· Range of Bids to be submitted: 18.89% - 19.49%.
· Average: 18.90% - 18.99%, with a potential cut-off 10 - 20bps
away from the average.
· Subscription: Oversubscription expected as both local and offshore investors are expected to participate
We still have to trade the rest of the curve and to assist with this, below is a snapshot of what is at play within the secondary market for your consideration. Happy hunting and bidding!
Below are the two-way quotes for the benchmark tenors:
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|
| Indicative Two-Way Quotes - Benchmark Tenors |
| Benchmark Tenor |
Bid (%) |
Offer (%) |
Mov (t-t0)% |
| 1Yr |
17.00 |
16.70 |
0.00 |
| 2Yr |
18.35 |
18.00 |
0.00 |
| 5yr |
18.90 |
18.40 |
0.00 |
| 10yr |
17.00 |
16.50 |
0.00 |
| 15yr |
16.50 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
| 20yr |
16.50 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
| 25yr |
16.30 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
Below are details of the two-way quotes for the infrastructure bonds and the key rates:
|
|
| Indicative Two-Way Quotes - IFB Series |
| IFB series |
Maturity |
Bid (%) |
Offer (%) |
Mov (t-t0)% |
| IFB1/2017/7 (IFB13) |
Nov-24 |
16.00 |
15.50 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2016/9 (IFB10) |
May-25 |
17.00 |
16.75 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2015/12 (IFB8) |
Mar-27 |
15.50 |
15.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2017/12 (IFB12) |
Feb-29 |
16.00 |
15.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2016/15 (IFB11) |
Oct-31 |
16.00 |
15.50 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2018/15 (IFB14) |
Jan-33 |
15.50 |
15.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2018/20 (IFB15) |
Oct-38 |
16.50 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2019/25 (IFB16) |
Feb-44 |
16.50 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2019/16 (IFB17) |
Oct-35 |
15.50 |
15.20 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2020/9 (IFB18) |
Apr-29 |
15.00 |
14.50 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2020/6 (IFB19) |
May-26 |
14.50 |
13.75 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2020/11 (IFB20) |
Aug-31 |
17.50 |
16.75 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2021/16 (IFB21) |
Jan-37 |
17.00 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2021/18 (IFB22) |
Mar-39 |
17.00 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2021/21 (IFB23) |
Aug-42 |
17.00 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2022/19 (IFB24) |
Jan-41 |
17.00 |
16.50 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2022/18 (IFB25) |
May-40 |
17.00 |
16.50 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2022/14 (IFB26) |
Oct-36 |
17.00 |
16.50 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2022/6 (IFB27) |
Nov-28 |
17.00 |
16.00 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2023/17 (IFB28) |
Feb-40 |
17.00 |
16.25 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2023/7 (IFB29) |
Jun-30 |
17.00 |
16.30 |
0.00 |
| IFB1/2023/6.5 (IFB30) |
May-30 |
17.35 |
17.15 |
0.00 |
|
|
| Key Interest Rates |
|
Mov (bps) |
| O/N Interbank |
13.2277% |
8.41 |
| 91 Day T-bill |
16.5038% |
12.91 |
| 182 Day T-bill |
16.6331% |
12.73 |
| 364 Day T-bill |
16.8574% |
17.73 |
| Central Bank Rate (CBR) |
13.00% |
50.00 |
| Inflation |
6.90% |
30.00 |
Attached are the bond positions available today and the IFB1/2024/8.5Yr Bond Prospectus.
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