Friday Predictions
The bond auction for this month closes on Tuesday (09-Nov-2021) and below are my expectations for the two papers on offer:
- FXD1/2021/5Yr (5 years): average between 11.10% - 11.20%.
- FXD1/2019/20Yr (17.5 years): average between 13.35% - 13.45%.
- The auction to be oversubscribed with interest skewed towards the shorter 5Yr bond.
The T-bill auction was oversubscribed, further highlighting the increased levels of liquidity in the local space. The results are attached for your perusal. Below is a snapshot of what is at play within the secondary market. Happy hunting and a lovely weekend ahead!
|
|
| Indicative Two-Way Quotes - Benchmark Tenors |
| Benchmark Tenor |
Bid (%) |
Offer (%) |
Mov (t-t0)% |
| 1Yr |
8.80 |
8.50 |
0.00 |
| 2Yr |
9.60 |
9.20 |
0.00 |
| 5yr |
11.20 |
11.00 |
0.00 |
| 10yr |
12.20 |
12.10 |
0.00 |
| 15yr |
13.00 |
12.80 |
0.00 |
| 20yr |
13.45 |
13.35 |
0.00 |
| 25yr |
13.80 |
13.70 |
0.00 |
|
|
| Indicative Two-Way Quotes - IFB Series |
| IFB series |
Maturity |
Bid (%) |
Offer (%) |
Mov (t-t0)% |
| IFB1/2017/7
(IFB13)
|
Nov-24 |
9.50 |
9.00 |
0.00 |
IFB1/2016/9
(IFB10) |
May-25 |
9.50 |
9.00 |
0.00 |
IFB1/2015/12
(IFB8) |
Mar-27 |
9.60 |
9.00 |
0.00 |
IFB1/2017/12
(IFB12) |
Feb-29 |
10.80 |
10.60 |
0.00 |
IFB1/2016/15
(IFB11) |
Oct-31 |
11.40 |
11.20 |
0.15 |
IFB1/2018/15
(IFB14) |
Jan-33 |
11.45 |
11.35 |
0.02 |
IFB1/2018/20
(IFB15) |
Oct-38 |
12.00 |
11.80 |
0.00 |
IFB1/2019/25
(IFB16) |
Feb-44 |
12.50 |
12.15 |
0.00 |
IFB1/2019/16
(IFB17) |
Oct-35 |
12.20 |
12.10 |
0.13 |
IFB1/2020/9
(IFB18) |
Apr-29 |
10.90 |
10.80 |
0.15 |
IFB1/2020/6
(IFB19) |
May-26 |
9.75 |
9.25 |
0.13 |
IFB1/2020/11
(IFB20) |
Aug-31 |
11.50 |
11.20 |
0.13 |
IFB1/2021/16
(IFB21) |
Jan-37 |
12.30 |
12.10 |
0.13 |
IFB1/2021/18
(IFB22) |
Mar-39 |
12.30 |
12.10 |
0.00 |
IFB1/2021/21
(IFB23) |
Aug-42 |
12.60 |
12.55 |
0.00 |
|
|
| Key Interest Rates |
|
Mov (bps) |
| O/N Interbank |
4.7357% |
24.50 |
| 91 Day T-bill |
7.097% |
5.70 |
| 182 Day T-bill |
7.554% |
6.80 |
| 364 Day T-bill |
8.624% |
13.50 |
| Inflation |
6.45% |
-46.00 |
|
|
|
|
