Kenya Bond Market Update: 05 March 2024

Published on
March 5, 2024
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Auction, Part 1


For the eagle-eyed and savvy investors such as yourself, I am sure you would have noticed that this month’s bond auction will be in two parts. The re-opened 3Yr bond, FXD1/2024/3Yr, will be auctioned this week. The sale period ends tomorrow, 06-Mar-2024 and the auction will be held on the same day. The other two bonds on offer, the FXD1/2023/5Yr and FXD1/2024/10Yr, will have their sale period end and auction held on the 20th of March, 2024. For the re-opened FXD1/2024/3Yr, my expectations are as follows:
  • Average: 18.00% – 18.20%, with the cut-off coming in 15 – 20bps above the average.
  •  Subscription: Assuming the target will be KES 20Bn, the  auction should be oversubscribed.
I am a day late with this but attached is the CBK weekly report to assist in your reading of the market while updated benchmark Yield Curve levels are ready for your perusal on the attached pricelist. I have also attached the NSE Implied Yields for the NSE’s valuations of all the treasuries.To bring it all together, below is a snapshot of what is at play within the secondary market for your consideration. Happy hunting! 
Below are the two-way quotes for the benchmark tenors:
 
Indicative Two-Way Quotes - Benchmark Tenors
Benchmark Tenor Bid (%) Offer (%) Mov (t-t0)%
1Yr 17.20 16.80 0.00
2Yr 18.40 18.00 0.00
5yr 18.60 18.20 0.00
10yr 17.00 16.50 0.00
15yr 16.50 16.00 0.00
20yr 16.50 16.00 0.00
25yr 16.30 16.00 0.00
 
Below are details of the two-way quotes for the infrastructure bonds and the key rates:
 
Indicative Two-Way Quotes - IFB Series
IFB series Maturity Bid (%) Offer (%) Mov (t-t0)%
IFB1/2017/7 (IFB13) Nov-24 17.20 16.90 0.00
IFB1/2016/9 (IFB10) May-25 15.85 15.75 0.00
IFB1/2015/12 (IFB8) Mar-27 17.30 17.00 0.00
IFB1/2017/12 (IFB12) Feb-29 17.00 16.00 0.00
IFB1/2016/15 (IFB11) Oct-31 17.00 16.50 0.00
IFB1/2018/15 (IFB14) Jan-33 17.65 17.35 0.00
IFB1/2018/20 (IFB15) Oct-38 17.50 17.00 0.00
IFB1/2019/25 (IFB16) Feb-44 18.00 17.50 0.00
IFB1/2019/16 (IFB17) Oct-35 17.65 17.35 0.00
IFB1/2020/9 (IFB18) Apr-29 14.75 14.50 0.00
IFB1/2020/6 (IFB19) May-26 13.50 12.75 0.00
IFB1/2020/11 (IFB20) Aug-31 17.40 17.10 0.00
IFB1/2021/16 (IFB21) Jan-37 17.50 17.00 0.00
IFB1/2021/18 (IFB22) Mar-39 17.65 17.35 0.00
IFB1/2021/21 (IFB23) Aug-42 17.80 17.50 0.00
IFB1/2022/19 (IFB24) Jan-41 17.65 17.35 0.00
IFB1/2022/18 (IFB25) May-40 17.65 17.35 0.00
IFB1/2022/14 (IFB26) Oct-36 17.65 17.35 0.00
IFB1/2022/6 (IFB27) Nov-28 17.60 17.40 0.00
IFB1/2023/17 (IFB28) Feb-40 17.65 17.35 0.00
IFB1/2023/7 (IFB29) Jun-30 17.40 17.10 0.00
IFB1/2023/6.5 (IFB30) May-30 17.10 16.80 -0.02
IFB1/2024/8.5 (IFB31) Aug-32 17.60 17.45 -0.13
 
 
Key  Interest Rates   Mov (bps)
O/N Interbank 13.9738% 0.00
91 Day T-bill 16.6218% 3.23
182 Day T-bill 16.7849% 5.05
364 Day T-bill 16.9722% 5.28
Central Bank Rate (CBR) 13.00% 50.00
Inflation 6.30% -60.00
 
Attached are the bond positions available today, NSE Implied Yields for last week, the CBK Weekly Report and the March bond auction prospectus
Bond Positions
NSE Implied Yields
CBK Weekly Report
March Bond Auction
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